Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine β a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu β a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement β and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us β for our nation β the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas β even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines β a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority β and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.