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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.